Ergodicity is fascinating. It's main message is that path matters more than probability.
Say there are 100 grapes, one of which is poisonous. It will cause you to froth at the corner of the mouth and die. You don't know which grape is the guilty one. The probability of getting that one grape is only 1% but will you take that chance? As you say, the risk of death kills all cost-benefit analyses. On paper you acted irrationally (not taking a 1% risk) but what is rational is what keeps you alive.
Nassim Taleb (Skin in the Game) is another good source to learn about ergodicity.
Brilliant edition …some really great pieces of information from
Such diverse perspectives…
Thankyou. I really enjoying curating this one, so happy that you liked it as much.
Ergodicity is fascinating. It's main message is that path matters more than probability.
Say there are 100 grapes, one of which is poisonous. It will cause you to froth at the corner of the mouth and die. You don't know which grape is the guilty one. The probability of getting that one grape is only 1% but will you take that chance? As you say, the risk of death kills all cost-benefit analyses. On paper you acted irrationally (not taking a 1% risk) but what is rational is what keeps you alive.
Nassim Taleb (Skin in the Game) is another good source to learn about ergodicity.
Yes. A similar example in this piece as well. And he talks of Taleb's antifragile idea in same theme.
This one "It's main message is that path matters more than probability." is a pretty good insight and way to understand ergodicity. Thankyou :)