On data as added sense - makes sense although I would approach it exactly from the other direction. I believe there is a bunch of companies that rely too heavily on data as if its the be all / end all of information. Rather, it would make sense to treat it as another sense and also use intuitive and qualitative decision making along with it.
On the wisdom of crowds: it works best when lots of participants know lots of different things about the subject to be estimated. When statistician Francis Dalton performed the original experiment in 1907 -- guess the weight of an ox -- he had a six pence cover charge for anyone making a guess. By this he excluded the riff-raffs and included only those with some idea (butchers and farmers, etc.).
The second thing is that estimation is fundamentally different from creation. Something exists in reality and we have to make a guess (by converging different views of reality) is different from nothing exists and you have to create.
Finally, in decisions by committee, the incentives are different. It is actually to converge and move forward. But put together a diverse team and set incentives for contrarian views that when they work will reward the idea-giver, then I have reason to be optimistic about the exercise.
On data as added sense - makes sense although I would approach it exactly from the other direction. I believe there is a bunch of companies that rely too heavily on data as if its the be all / end all of information. Rather, it would make sense to treat it as another sense and also use intuitive and qualitative decision making along with it.
Yes. Itn't that 'added sense' angle? Use it along side other methods.
On the wisdom of crowds: it works best when lots of participants know lots of different things about the subject to be estimated. When statistician Francis Dalton performed the original experiment in 1907 -- guess the weight of an ox -- he had a six pence cover charge for anyone making a guess. By this he excluded the riff-raffs and included only those with some idea (butchers and farmers, etc.).
The second thing is that estimation is fundamentally different from creation. Something exists in reality and we have to make a guess (by converging different views of reality) is different from nothing exists and you have to create.
Finally, in decisions by committee, the incentives are different. It is actually to converge and move forward. But put together a diverse team and set incentives for contrarian views that when they work will reward the idea-giver, then I have reason to be optimistic about the exercise.