📚 Prediction markets for news, Digital divinity, Attention management, Lessons from hurricane communications, Ingenious design of an aluminum can

50 Ways to be ridiculously generous, Moments after a life changing call, Animals on the clotheslines, $2.56 Trophy and more

Hello, this is post #185.

I’m having a great run on the books front. I spent a fair amount of time this week on two books and both have turned out to be really good. Here’s a quick shoutout.

The Money Trap by Alok Sama is an autobiographical account by the former SoftBank investment executive. Sama shares his experiences working closely with two industry giants—Masayoshi Son and Nikesh Arora. He skillfully narrates his time at SoftBank during one of its most remarkable periods. The book is both engaging and insightful, with Sama's sharp observations about people and their quirks adding a layer of humor and depth. I listened to the audiobook version and found the narration exceptional. It enhanced Alok Sama’s brilliant storytelling, making the experience even more immersive and engaging.

The Breadmaker by Abhishek Verma is a fictional tale of an anonymous baker on a mission to create the world’s best bread. His obsessive quest gathers a unique group of experts, each contributing their distinct talents to assess his success. Verma’s writing is refreshing, filled with vivid metaphors that bring every scene to life. The narrative shifts fluidly—from scripted dialogues to entries from the protagonist’s diary—seamlessly blending styles. The characters evolve beautifully as the plot thickens, and Verma weaves in thought-provoking reflections on taste and the complex relationship between the taster and the tasted. This is a gripping, innovative whodunit that I couldn’t put down. It was well worth dedicating my Sunday to this read.

I’m in the middle of another great read, more on that next week. For now, let’s take a quick look at the lineup for today:

And now to the main features…

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📊 Prediction Markets For News

Polymarket and Thèo have brought prediction markets back into the spotlight. In “From prediction markets to info finance”, Vitalik Buterin explores how these markets are designed to function in this context and beyond. He notes:

In short, I believe that (i) prediction markets even as they exist today are a very useful tool for the world, but furthermore (ii) prediction markets are only one example of a much larger incredibly powerful category, with potential to create better implementations of social media, science, news, governance, and other fields. I shall label this category "info finance".

Here’s his core premise: The two faces of Polymarket: a betting site for the participants, a news site for everyone

He explains:

You should never trust the charts entirely: if everyone trusts the charts, then anyone with money can manipulate the charts and no one will dare to bet against them. On the other hand, trusting the news entirely is also a bad idea. News has an incentive to be sensational, and play up the consequences of anything for clicks. Sometimes, this is justified, sometimes it's not. If you see a sensational article, but then you go to the market and you see that probabilities on relevant events have not changed at all, it makes sense to be suspicious. Alternatively, if you see an unexpectedly high or low probability on the market, or an unexpectedly sudden change, that's a signal to read through the news and see what might have caused it. Conclusion: you can be more informed by reading the news and the charts, than by reading either one alone.

Let's recap that's going on here. If you are a bettor, then you can deposit to Polymarket, and for you it's a betting site. If you are not a bettor, then you can read the charts, and for you it's a news site.

This post touches on more interesting applications around decision markets, DAO governance and Scientific peer review. A great example of ‘first principle’ thinking. 

If you’re curious about prediction markets, I highly recommend Nick Whitaker and J. Zachary Mazlish’s piece “Why prediction markets aren’t popular” as well. They break down how these markets operate, the key players, and why they often fall short. While Vitalik focuses on their potential, this post dives into the mechanics and limitations behind the scenes.

(via MR blog) 

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🕉️ Digital Divinity

I recently came across the terms religion tech and devotion tech while exploring the pitch of Apps for Bharat, the creators of Sri Mandir app. Their app helps millions of Indian users with spiritual journeys by offering personalized worship experiences. Users can set up virtual temples and connect with their faith anytime, anywhere.

This space intrigues me, forming part of the evergreen ABCD category: Astro, Bollywood, Cricket, and Devotion.

Rest of World offers a fascinating global perspective on what they call ‘Digital Divinity’. They explore how technology integrates into religious practices, showcasing innovations like apps ensuring Halal meals, Sharia-compliant streaming platforms, online oracles, and AI tools that narrate the Bible in your voice.

These niche solutions cater to deep-seated spiritual needs, bridging tradition and technology. They also highlight how a product-driven approach can address unmet user needs and potentially create entirely new categories.

JainGPT was a revelation for me.

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📢 Attention Management

I recently found an insightful example of ethnographic research in a Google I/O 2016 video. It details findings from a study on how people manage their attention and interact with smartphone notifications. The video explores critical questions:

• What do people want to know?

• When do they want to know it?

• How should information be presented for maximum impact?

In just 30 minutes, it delivers actionable insights, with some compelling visuals to support the findings. It’s a great resource for anyone looking to understand user behaviour more deeply.

A couple of useful screenshots from the video:

Image source: Youtube

Google’s framing of the problem as ‘attention management’ highlights the broader context of how users interact with notifications. It shifts the focus from isolated features to a holistic view of user experience.

For those intrigued by this theme, I previously discussed Slack’s approach to notification management in #50. Their renowned flowchart exemplifies user-centric design, and their documentation offers a detailed breakdown of this philosophy. Both provide valuable insights into balancing functionality and user attention.

I’m looking for more case studies around use of ethnographic research in product & category building. If you’ve any recommendations, pls comment.

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🌪️ Lessons From Hurricane Communications

Gapingvoid draws leadership communication lessons from hurricane warning systems. Many might not be familiar with hurricane warning messages, so here’s a quick download:

These messages, designed to prompt immediate action, offer valuable lessons in clarity, urgency, and impact. Here’s how Gapingvoid expands:

Weather forecasters understand something most of us overlook. They know that awareness builds gradually and different people tune in at different times. They don’t care if they’re repeating themselves. They know that repetition isn’t redundant – it’s necessary. They don’t care about looking important. They’re trying to keep people alive.  

Great organizational communication follows the same pattern. It’s persistent, consistent, and gradually intensifies. It treats every step as part of a larger story that’s unfolding. Leaders who communicate effectively know that it’s not about ego, it’s about keeping your organization alive. And that’s not hyperbole.

Simple lessons, often ignored. 

I love Gapingvoid's storytelling; they always surprise with their metaphors and references.

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🫂 50 Ways To Be Ridiculously Generous

Alexandra Franzen shares 50 ways to be ridiculously generous—and feel ridiculously good. 

The good part?

Behaving generously doesn’t necessarily mean “donating money” or “giving away your last cookie.” Those are two options, sure, but there are plenty of other ways to be generous. 

You can share knowledge freely, instead of hoarding it. You can send a handwritten note, instead of a text message. You can make eye contact, instead of checking out and staring down at your phone. You can introduce a friend to someone they ought to meet and help them secure a new job, client, or opportunity. You can do big things, simple things, all kinds of things.

Here’re some of the suggestions worth trying:

2. Find a Little Free Library near you and donate a book. Can’t find one? Start one. 

6. Choose a struggling (or not-so-struggling) artist and publicly thank them for adding beauty and inspiration to the world. Post a positive review online. Mention them in your newsletter. Or send a personal note to say, “I love your work. Please keep going.”

22. Turn a photo from your smartphone into a real postcard. Send it.

47. Plan a weekly co-working session and invite a friend to join you (either online or in-person). Tell them, “Let’s get together, once a week, and use this time to work on our goals.” Use this time to write your novel, finish your dissertation, map out your marketing plan, onboard new clients, declutter your home, whatever you want to accomplish. This will be hugely beneficial for you—and your friend, too. They’ll be grateful that you took the initiative to plan this weekly get-it-done date.

(via Hulry newsletter)

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🏆 Moments After A Life Changing Call

Adam Smith has spent 18 years recording the moments after the world's brightest minds receive a life-changing call from the Nobel Prize committee.

They might still be in bed when the call comes. Some are sitting at their desk at work, while others are mid-air on a transatlantic flight. But all Nobel Prize winners receive a phone call to break the big news to them.

Then, moments after they hang up, their phone rings again.

The man on the other end of the line is Adam Smith.

Since 2006, he has been one of the first voices that a new Nobel laureate will hear. In his role as chief scientific officer at Nobel Prize Outreach, Smith has spoken to almost every new prize winner just as reality is dawning. His job is to have the first conversation with new Nobel laureates to capture their excitement, reflections and surprise at receiving a prize.

This BBC post brings us what he learnt doing this for over 18 years now. Fascinating stories all along!

(via Kottke)

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✈️ Staying Relevant Or Not

Things have a strange relationship with survival. Some manage to stay relevant even after their intended purpose ends, while others fade and become part of our memories.

A couple of stories on this theme:

1. Military rations to American tables. How some wartime food experiments and things from military rations made their path to mainstream food habits? We’re talking about M&M, Instant coffee, orange juice concentrates and more. 

2. Final flight of the Airline Magazine. From the US aviation industry. We’re still a couple of years away in India.

An in-flight magazine is “for you, it’s for your mother, and it’s for your daughter,” she said. “Everyone has to be able to read it. It crosses generations with its appeal. Most people are aware the audience is broad.” So: the opposite type of product, really, from the personalized digital content tooled and retooled by increasingly specific customer data. “It can’t be niche,” Carpenter continued. “It can’t make people feel separated from it. It’s not going to be political or religious. It’s going to be inspiring, positive. Airline magazines don’t write bad reviews. We don’t interview someone to make them feel dumb. It’s all about putting positivity out into the world.”

(via Kottke, Storythings)

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✨ Everything else

1. The ingenious design of the Aluminum Beverage Can. What a piece of engineering & industrial efforts! God bless creators like Bill who show us the magic that’s hiding in the plainsight. (via 10+1 Things)

2. Helga Stentzel sees beautiful things in the mundane. Below are some examples of her work: Her animals on the clotheslines collection is insanely creative! (via kottke) 

Source: Helga’s Instagram Feed

3. The $2.56 Trophy for a bug bounty. The Internet is a strange place. This is the kind of story I subscribe to “Now I Know” for.

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⏰ In case you missed last week’s post, you can find it here.

📚 Lessons for rapid scale, “Simple" to "WTF" scale of product descriptions, Accountability sinks, Now I know, Remarkable life of Ibelin, Hindi lessons with Harshit

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That's all for this week, folks! 

I hope I've earned the privilege of your time.

If you liked this post, please hit the ❤️ below, leave a comment or share with someone who will find it useful too. It’s highly encouraging. 

Pritesh